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25/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Tancred Stakes day

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A bumper ten race card has been set down for Rosehill on Saturday, headlined by a Group l double of the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and Tancred Stakes (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1400m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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Tancred Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Tancred Stakes

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Race 1. (12:10) Midway (Bm72) 1300m

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Back Me

1 Astero (Bet Now: $3.80) is knocking on the door to win a Midway. Looked like it would come over 1200m here two weeks ago and he surged hard late, but couldn’t quite get there when a game second to Lancaster Bomber. He has won up to 1400m so 1300m here is fine and fourth up from a spell, he should just about be at peak fitness. Hard to beat.

Danger

7 Miss Einstein (Bet Now: $10.00) is in for a good prep for Sam Kavanagh. She resumed in the Lancaster Bomber Midway from two weeks back here and was an eye catcher from the back, clocking good late splits to finish three lengths from the winner. If she is able to settle closer in the run, which she is capable of, she can certainly take this out.

Long Shot

2 Tampering (Bet Now: $11.00) is a proven Midway performer that commands respect. Kerry Parker trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since December 3 when far from disgraced over 2000m at Randwick behind Zoumon, beaten around 3.5L. He can sprint well fresh and his recent trial win at Kembla was a good piece of work. He has to rate highly.

Race 2. (12:45) T L Baillieu Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

1 Amur (Bet Now: $5.00) has had a busy first prep but he seems to be holding his form pretty well. He was game in defeat in the Sires at Flemington. Admittedly he got into a lovely spot from the gate and was there to win but just had no answers for the finale produced by Veight. No horse of that quality here and with the 1400m run under the belt, he appeals.

Danger

3 The Years (Bet Now: $3.90) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He tried to do that last time in the Black Opal and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to stablemate and dominant winner Autumn Ballet. He was 1300m back to 1200m there so I think up to 1400m, gets the front and takes running down.

Long Shot

8 Waverley (Bet Now: $8.00) has looked a 1400m+ horse since his trials and he gets to 1400m for the first time here, so keen to see how he goes. He has had two career outings, both coming over 1100m, the latest at Warwick Farm where he was flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up and was very good late in the piece. He’ll love the rise in trip and for mine is right in the mix as a winning threat.

Race 3. (13:20) Tulloch Stakes 2000m

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Back Me

7 Awesome John (Bet Now: $4.20) is a very nice horse for John O’Shea and I reckon getting to 2000m is perfect. He ran in the Phar Lap from two weeks ago, won by Zougotcha, and I thought he was very good between runners, warming to the task with purpose and looking like a real Derby prospect. Love him up in trip and if he’s within range on the turn, he has the finale to beat these.

Danger

3 Major Beel (Bet Now: $6.00) will jump on the bunny and run boldly. He has been strong in three runs back from a spell, the latest coming a fortnight back over 1900m here where he chased a solid speed throughout and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Almania. He is bred to eat up 2000m, he should lead comfortably and prove hard to run down.

Long Shot

2 Ausbred Rising Sun (Bet Now: $8.50) has to be given another chance. He was too bad to be true last Saturday in the Rosehill Guineas I thought. He got back in the run and was never a factor in a race dominated by those on speed. This looks more his level and his prior efforts suggested he is good enough for a race like this, so I wouldn’t totally pen him.

Race 4. (14:00) Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m

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Back Me

Superman can be a definition of flying but another is 5 Sunshine Rising (Bet Now: $4.50). This horse is absolutely bursting to win a race. Total forgive two back at Sandown in the Carlyon Cup behind Pounding before going to the Sky High here where he was very good from the back behind Protagonist, a narrow third. If he can settle closer in the run and get the suck trip, he’ll take a power of beating.

Danger

4 Gear Up (Bet Now: $7.50) is a fascinating runner. Annabel Neasham trained import that brings strong form from overseas, highlighted by a win over Cleveland and a second to Camorra, two high quality stayers IMO. To my eye, his trials suggest he needs time, but in terms of class, he has plenty of it, so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

Long Shot

10 Cadre Du Noir (Bet Now: $23.00) can run a race at a price. He resumed in the Canberra Mile, a prelude to the Canberra Cup, and just forget he went around. He was last in the run and just couldn’t get involved in a fast run mile won by Caesar’s Palace. Fitter and up to 2000m, good record at the track, I wouldn’t totally pen him because his best is good enough to be dangerous.

Race 5. (14:40) Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m

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Back Me

16 Kalino (Bet Now: $9.50) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. He ran in the Maurice McCarten and to the eye, it was just a run, but given the race shape, he really had no chance of figuring in the finish, so I am very forgiving of the run behind Cannonball. Much better set up this time around and I reckon the edge off the track is ideal for him to bounce back.

Danger

9 Coal Crusher (Bet Now: $7.50) will take beating from on speed. Joe Pride trains this gelding, who resumed two weeks ago in the Maurice McCarten and I thought did a good job in defeat given he was near a very slow speed and he is at his best when leading and rolling, which couldn’t eventuate there, and battled on well enough behind Cannonball. He’ll land in front and should he get some level of control, he will be hard to beat.

Long Shot

2 Hard Empire (Bet Now: $21.00) is an interesting runner. He has been kept on ice for Team Edmonds, having not raced since the Southern Cross back on Feb 11 when far from disgraced in defeat behind Quantico, beaten just under a length. Good fresh horse and despite being hit and miss at times, his best is clearly good enough and that form does read well for here.

Race 6. (15:20) Emancipation Stakes 1500m

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Back Me

The track isn’t going to be rock hard and with that in mind, I think it is a case of good luck beating 6 Statement (Bet Now: $3.90). Joseph O’Brien trained mare that comes over from Ireland in career best form. Her win at Tipperary last time wasn’t up against much but she gave them an absolute spanking and the big key for her has been getting her toe in. Should get that, to an extent, here, maps ideally…extremely hard to beat.

Danger

14 Finepoint (Bet Now: $16.00) should appreciate a rise to 1500m. Chris Waller trained mare that resumed over 1350m here on Coolmore Day and I thought she did more than enough in defeat behind Maotai. She got put into a lovely spot under J Mac and was there to threaten but being first up, condition just gave way when third to Maotai. Good second up record and with a rise in trip, she’ll take beating.

Long Shot

12 More Prophets (Bet Now: $31.00) is flying for John Thompson. She hasn’t won in a long time but despite that, she is racing really well. Ran two weeks ago in the Coolmore and was amazing from near last on the turn, beaten just under four lengths by Espiona, clocking good late splits. If she’s within range on the turn, I think she is certainly going well enough to prove hard to hold out.

Race 7. (16:00) Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m

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Back Me

I just can’t see 3 Pavitra (Bet Now: $3.30) getting beat. Her Kembla Grange Classic win was just arrogant, the way she put the race to bed in a matter of strides and just got stronger as the race went on. That was 1600m and off that, the rise to 2000m here looks perfect. As a whole, this isn’t a strong race, so I am really keen on her prospects. Think she’s the best on the program.

Danger

1 Prowess (Bet Now: $3.00 SPECIAL ODDS) is a ripping filly from NZ who has the runs on the board in terms of beating the older horses. That came last start at Pukekohe in the New Zealand Stakes where she was there to be run down but gee she found under pressure and despite doing a bit wrong late, she was strong to the line in winning. Has a win over star filly Legarto, proven at the trip, class…clearly hard to beat.

Long Shot

7 Pierossa (Bet Now: $26.00) is racing like a rise in trip will suit. Did more than enough fresh here behind subsequent Rosehill Guineas winner Lindermann. She then went to the Kembla Grange Classic and was good from off the speed but was never a threat to Pavitra, running a four length third. I think getting to 2000m is a plus…whether she is good enough to beat Pavitra, I am not too sure.

Race 8. (16:40) Tancred Stakes 2400m

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Back Me

I am stunned that 9 Cleveland (Bet Now: $8.00) wasn’t closer to favourite in early markets. He is a very good stayer for Joseph O’Brien that comes here with an eye towards the Sydney Cup and potentially the Melbourne Cup later in the year. His form from overseas reads very well for a race like this, he’s in a gun camp, dry ground is fine, he’ll be strong late…I just think, all things equal, he’s one of the hardest to beat.

Danger

1 Gold Trip (Bet Now: $4.80) will love the forecast for a drop of rain to hit the track. Given they ran home sub 34 in the Ranvet, he just had no chance of figuring in the finish so forgive and forget the run. Super return in the Peter Young and getting to 2400m here with give in the track, forgive a good horse for one bad run, with excuses. Hard to beat against these.

Long Shot

If this track is playing up/in, 2 Knights Order (Bet Now: $8.00) becomes dangerous. Plain return in the Chipping Norton but I thought ran a much improved race in the Sky High two weeks back when leading, copping heat and fighting on gamely in defeat behind Protagonist. He’ll lead, be rolling from around the 700m and look to break their hearts.

Race 9. (17:20) Doncaster Prelude 1500m

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Back Me

Each way gamble for me here in the shape of 6 Diamil (Bet Now: $13.00). He resumed in the Ajax and given the way the track played, he was no hope of figuring in the finish, but actually did a pretty good job to finish off as well as he did behind Cepheus. He maps to settle much closer in the run this time around and with a good second up record, bit of cushion in the ground, I like him here.

Danger

12 Waterford (Bet Now: $5.00) is in a similar boat to most runners engaged here. He needs to win to make the Doncaster field next Saturday. Just a run fresh behind Think About It but bounced back in the Ajax two weeks ago, finishing off strongly when second to Cepheus. Third up from a break so he should be at peak fitness and off last run, he’ll take beating against these.

Long Shot

15 Welwal (Bet Now: $13.00) is back on track. Had excuses but was still a tad plain fresh behind Zeyrek here. He raced here again in the Ajax a fortnight back and was very good against the pattern I thought behind Cepheus, clocking decent enough late splits. D-Day for him here from a Doncaster perspective and now hard fit, he has the class/quality to measure up.

Race 10. (17:55) Cleanaway (Bm88) 1400m

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Back Me

6 Maotai… (Bet Now: $4.60) can he go on with it? He was keen in the run when racing over 1350m here two weeks ago but despite that, he was trucking and wanted clear air. Once he got it, he exploded and was dominant in the run to the line. Off that, 1400m here should be fine and yes, there is more depth, but he has the change up speed to win again. Leading contender.

Danger

8 Wicklow (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes. You’d think this guy has eyes towards races like the Hawkesbury Cup and Scone Cup. He hasn’t raced since Melbourne Cup Day when making up good ground from near last, ending up being beaten four lengths by Rustic Steel. Two trials to get ready have been encouraging and first up at 1400m I do like. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

16 Attractable (Bet Now: $18.00) can be an improver. First run for Sara Ryan came in the Maotai race from two weeks back here over 1350m. He paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out, beating one runner home, but his late splits were actually pretty good. Good second up record and with the run under the belt, he can run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Pavitra

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Awesome John

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Diamil

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 14

Leg Three: 5, 6, 7, 12, 15

Leg Four: 6, 7, 8, 16

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful


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