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8/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

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Eight races will be run and won under the lights at The Valley this Friday. Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (18:15) Msc Signs Mdn Plate 1600m

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I reckon the market will flip come jump time and 9 Universally (Bet Now: $3.90) will start favourite for Maher/Eustace. She has done more than enough in two career outings, both over 1400m, where each time she has got off the speed and found the line well. The rise to 1600m is ideal, she has more upside/progression than most and will be strong at the end.

Danger

11 Sea Of Lights (Bet Now: $2.30) has the 1600m run under the belt as well as a kind map. She ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and seemingly had every chance on speed but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth. Knocking on the door to win her maiden and the depth here isn’t overly deep.

Long Shot

10 Neferure (Bet Now: $7.50) should appreciate a rise to 1600m. She debuted over 1350m at Donald where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up headway and was pretty good in defeat. Might want one more, a further rise in trip and a bigger track, but in the right camp and has enormous upside.

Race 2. (18:45) Heartkids For Xmas (64) 1600m

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Going to lean the way of 1 Diesel (Bet Now: $6.00) for Ben Brisbourne. This guy resumed over 1500m at Albury where he got to near last and spotted those in front a tidy start but I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece in a very encouraging return behind Cuffe’s Grange. He has a touch of quality about him when right and off the first up run, I think he’s in for a good prep.

Danger

2 Mr Trafficanti (Bet Now: $3.70) was finding it hard to win but he’s in a purple patch at the moment, winning two on the bounce. Strong maiden win at Mornington two back before proving that was no fluke with a start and beating win at Geelong. Racing like a rise to 1600m suits, he’s hard fit, in form and strikes a winnable race.

Long Shot

7 Kentahten (Bet Now: $9.00) doesn’t win out of turn but is an honest animal that is rarely far away. He ran second to Mr Trafficanti in the Geelong race mentioned above when on speed and was hailed as the winner, only to be nabbed near the peg. Not sure I could back him to win but he is honest and I reckon is a lock to run top four.

Race 3. (19:15) Centec Security Group (64) 1000m

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3 Setosa (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a pretty sharp filly for Phillip Stokes and I think is the way to go. This filly resumed with a bang, giving them a start and a beating to win and win well at Pakenham, winning by a space and running good time. Tricky draw, potentially, but she can sit off what looks a genuine tempo and finish over the top.

Danger

1 Our Cracklin Rosie (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the likely leader and she comes here as a last start winner at the track/distance, leading throughout to win a fortnight back and despite being out of petrol tickets late, she had enough in hand to score. Gets in well enough after the claim and with her racing pattern, she’ll give herself every chance.

Long Shot

2 Rhetorical (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented filly for Mark Walker that resumes. This girl makes her Australian debut, her last run coming on Sep 16 at Riccarton in NZ when fourth in a Stakes race, beaten three lengths. She has Tokyo Tycoon in the form on multiple occasions, and he’s the best 3YO NZ has to offer, so that clearly reads well for this. Watch the market.

Race 4. (19:45) Allstate Refrigeration Services (70) 2040m

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1 Hard Squeeze (Bet Now: $3.90) doesn’t win out of turn but the first up run was a beauty and I think she strikes a winnable race here second up for an in form Griffiths/De Kock stable, a camp which always fires during the Summer months. This mare resumed over the mile here two weeks ago and was a real eye catcher from off the speed when third to talented mare Fearless Writer. Gets a great set up here with the map, claim and the quality of race. Like her a lot.

Danger

5 One Last Kiss (Bet Now: $5.00) has returned in super order for Dan O’Sullivan. Her last run came a couple of Wednesdays back at Sandown over 2100m where she kept chasing from off the pace but couldn’t quite reel in Sea Speedwell in a driving go. She has that 2100m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this.

Long Shot

6 Uniquely (Bet Now: $19.00) is a sleeper at odds. She comes through the Sea Speedwell race mentioned above where she got back in the run and made up minimal headway in a race dominated by those on speed. She’s hard to catch at times but does have a liking for The Valley and can bounce back for sure.

Race 5. (20:15) Western General Bodyworks (Bm70) 2040m

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4 Savoir Faire (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the one to beat for Mark Walker. He was a proven 2000m performer in NZ so when he got to that trip for the first time down under at Pakenham, he relished and gave them a spanking in a sharp display. He has that 2000m run under the belt, he’s found winning and he can certainly go on with it against these.

Danger

11 Staunch (Bet Now: $4.20) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This guy caught the eye fresh on Geelong Cup Day before having a mini break and racing over the mile here two weeks ago where he got back off the speed and kept finding the line in a good effort when second to Captain Britain. Unknown at the trip but the way he finds the line, he should be fine.

Long Shot

3 Samedi (Bet Now: $8.00) is racing in pretty good form for Charlotte Littlefield and should be around the mark. He attempted to lead throughout in the Mortlake Cup last time out and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when run down late by Sous Les Nuages. Good racing style, hard fit, in form, he’s likeable.

Race 6. (20:45) Metro Freight Lines (Bm64) 1200m

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3 Esseffninety (Bet Now: $3.90) looks a great bet against these. Clinton McDonald trains this mare and she looks to have come back in really good order. She defied somewhat of a betting drift to win at Pakenham last time, giving them a start and a beating with a brilliant turn of foot to win and win well. Good test here at metro level but confident she not only measures up but takes this race out.

Danger

7 Miss Milhous (Bet Now: $6.00) looks to be in for a good prep and off the return, she commands respect. She was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1200m at Donald when on speed throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off and win. Harder here, but good racing style and has upside.

Long Shot

8 Miss Russia (Bet Now: $6.00) has been hit and miss in her eight start career but her best is good enough. Strong on speed win two back at Kyneton before going to this track/distance when on speed and tired late to finish down the track behind No Drama. Should find the front and if the track is playing up/in, she becomes quite dangerous.

Race 7. (21:15) Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge (64) 955m

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7 Hydro Star (Bet Now: $5.00) for me in an open 955m. He ran last Friday night at this trip where he got back to near last in the run and did make up ground but spotted them too much head start when fifth to Lloyd’s Crown, beaten just under a length. Jamie Mott is back on and he rides the horse better than anyone else so with that in mind, he can be within range and launch late.

Danger

4 Moon And Back (Bet Now: $6.00) is an Andrew Noblet trained mare that is several weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where she got a decent drag into the race and did make up ground when third to impressive winner Scuderia. Maps to settle closer in the run and John Allen has won on the horse previously so she has a bit in her corner.

Long Shot

2 Triumphantly (Bet Now: $14.00) rises in depth and is right up in the weights but he is racing in good heart for Saab Hassan. He had good three wide cover at Seymour last time before edging wider into clear air and letting down hard to win well. He’ll likely be spotting them a start but if the breaks go his way, he can threaten at odds.

Race 8. (21:45) Simpson Construction Hcp (C1) 1200m

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1 Private Jumbo (Bet Now: $1.80) is a good thing if he’s ready to go and that is the gamble you are taking. Is he forward enough? If the answer is yes, he should be $1.30-$1.40. Mick Huglin trained four year old that resumes after a good prep as a 3YO where he established himself as a Saturday class horse despite not winning but running ripping races. Maps perfect, trial was good, in well after the claim…should be winning.

Danger

6 Reprisal (Bet Now: $8.00) should appreciate the drop in distance/grade. He ran in the Amanda Elliott on Champions Day at Flemington where he found the 1400m and class of race a bridge too far behind talented animal Schwarz. 1/1 at the track/distance and despite drawing tricky, he has runs on the board to command respect.

Long Shot

2 Lascars (Bet Now: $12.00) will give cheek on speed at odds. He should have won on Ararat Cup Day but somehow, the eventual winner Nijiko was kissed on the date with the inside run and drove late to get the win. Lascars trialled like a bomb before the first up run where he was lame, and then Ararat, he was pipped near the peg. Hopefully with a positive ride, he leads and will give a bold sight at odds.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Private Jumbo

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Hard Squeeze

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 7 Hydro Star

 

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11

Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 9

Leg Four: 1

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful



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