Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil are locked in a tight race in the Irish General Election, according to an exit poll released after polls closed at 10pm. The Ipsos B&A Exit Poll, commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, shows Sinn Féin leading with 21.1% of first-preference votes, closely followed by Fine Gael at 21% and Fianna Fáil at 19.5%.
While the two largest parties in the current coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, would together hold 40.5% of the vote, the final result will hinge on Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where transfer votes play a critical role. An analysis of second-preference votes shows Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael tied at 20% each, with Sinn Féin slightly behind at 17%.
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The exit poll suggests the election result is still inconclusive, with all eyes now on the formation of a potential coalition government. In addition to the big three, smaller parties and independents are set to influence the outcome, with the Social Democrats (5.8%), Labour (5%), the Greens (4%), Aontú (3.6%), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1%), and Independent Ireland (2.2%) also capturing notable shares of the vote. Independents and other candidates together account for 14.6% of first preferences.
Sinn Féin’s director of elections, Matt Carthy, hailed the party’s performance as a major turnaround from its disappointing results in the 2023 local and European elections. “This is a phenomenal result given where we were coming from,” Carthy said, noting that the 2020 exit poll had underestimated Sinn Féin’s support by over 2%. “If the trend holds, there’s every chance Sinn Féin could emerge as the largest party.”
Fianna Fáil deputy leader Jack Chambers acknowledged a “three-way race” for the largest party, but downplayed his party’s third-place showing, suggesting the poll’s margin of error leaves room for change. Chambers also pointed to what he saw as a fragmentation of the political landscape. Similarly, Fine Gael representative Damien English called the result a “very solid performance,” despite the party facing the challenge of replacing 18 retiring incumbents. He expressed hope that Fine Gael’s vote share could rise above 21%.
Divisive Policy Differences
The exit poll results indicate that forming a majority could prove difficult, with a wide range of smaller parties and independents potentially involved in coalition negotiations. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out forming a coalition with Sinn Féin, citing significant policy differences. “Nothing has changed,” Chambers said, reaffirming Fianna Fáil’s stance. English also noted that it was too early for coalition talks but suggested that Sinn Féin’s support, though strong, has declined from previous highs.
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The potential for a four-party coalition, involving both major parties and smaller groups, now appears likely. However, coalition talks may be complicated by long-standing political divisions, particularly between Sinn Féin and the two dominant centrist parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. In 2020, despite similar rejections of Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil set aside their differences to form a coalition government, with the Green Party as a junior partner.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has fielded a large number of candidates this time, seeking to avoid the mistakes of 2020, when a failure to run enough candidates hindered the party’s ability to form a government despite winning the popular vote. McDonald has consistently called for a change of government, without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.
As the votes are counted over the weekend, with a margin of error of 1.4%, the focus will shift to the final seat allocation and the ensuing scramble for coalition partners. A new government could involve several smaller parties or independents, with many speculating that four parties may be needed to secure a majority in the 174-seat Dáil.
This election comes amid concerns over housing, immigration, and the cost of living, with political parties offering contrasting visions for Ireland’s future. Sinn Féin’s platform, including ambitious spending proposals, has been criticised by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as financially irresponsible, particularly in light of potential trade shocks from global economic changes. Meanwhile, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have faced their own controversies, including public gaffes, criticisms over policy on drug decriminalisation, and internal party tensions.
The election has also been overshadowed by broader international issues, including the impact of US President Donald Trump’s policies on Ireland’s economy and corporate tax regime, adding an additional layer of complexity to the political landscape.
With more than 3.6 million people registered to vote across 43 constituencies, the election has drawn attention for its focus on domestic issues such as housing and security in the wake of public unrest, including 2023’s Dublin riots. While the campaign has been described as lacklustre, with little public enthusiasm, the outcome remains unpredictable.
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As Ireland’s voting system requires multiple rounds of counting, the final results may not be known until Saturday, leaving the process of government formation to unfold over the coming days.