Friday, May 24, 2024

Irish Grand National 2024 trends and stats for Fairyhouse 5.00 on Monday

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I Am Maximus handed Willie Mullins a second Irish Grand National success in last season’s renewal and the Closutton master has targeted Nick Rockett at this year’s race… but do the trends suggest the novice chaser will bring it home?

The lightly-raced seven-year-old – a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and last seen finishing second over the larger obstacles in the Ten Up Novice Chase – has proved a popular order in Paddy Power’s antepost betting for the Easter Monday marathon, but the big-field handicap has thrown up a number of big-priced winners over the years including 150/1 shot Freewheelin Dylan in 2021.

While the race has failed to attract the maximum number of 30 horses, a bumper field of 21 will go to post at 5pm for Fairyhouse’s big race of the season.

Irish Grand National odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

Irish Grand National trends

AGE

Eight of the last 10 winners of the Irish Grand National were aged between seven and nine.

CHASE FORM

Nine winners of the last 10 renewals had at least four previous starts over fences, with the same number having scored in a chase.

COURSE FORM

Seven of the previous 10 winners boasted a previous outing at Fairyhouse, although only three of those had already been successful at the track.

DISTANCE FORM

A previous win over three miles or further is crucial as nine of the last 10 winners achieved this trend, with last season’s scorer I Am Maximus being the only trend buster. It is also worth looking for horses that have had at least five runs over that distance.

LAST TIME OUT

Seven of the last 10 winners were running within 41 days of their previous appearance.

 

ODDS

Six winners in the last 10 years had a starting price of 16/1 or higher, although three favourites have justified their place at the head of the market in that period.

RATING

Every winner of the Irish Grand National since 2013 has been rated between 128 and 153.

SEASON FORM

The last 10 winners all had at least three runs that season, while eight of those were successful on at least one occasion.

WEIGHT

You want to look for horses carrying between 9st 12lbs and 11st 1lbs as the only winners outside this bracket were Liberty Counsel (2013) and Our Duke (2017) – the lowest and highest-rated winners in the last 10 years.

Irish Grand National 2024 trends verdict

Punchestown Grand National Trial winner Where It All Began is the only horse that ticks all the trends and further gets the nod on account of being outside the market principals at the time of writing.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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