Over a dozen NFL teams have losing records against the spread this season, but the Bills are the only one of those with a winning straight-up record. Buffalo (6-5) is 4-7 ATS, with last Sunday’s thrashing of the Jets ending a six-game ATS losing streak. Buffalo heads to Philadelphia on Sunday, where the Eagles are 3.5-point favorites, per the Week 12 NFL odds. This is just the second game since the start of last season that Buffalo is an underdog, and that extra motivation may spark interest in it for Week 12 NFL bets.
However, the Eagles aren’t the Jets, and no team has fewer ATS defeats than Philly in 2023. Was the Bills’ bounce-back performance versus New York enough to get your support for them with Week 12 NFL predictions? All of the Week 12 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 12 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top Week 12 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 12 NFL picks is that the Vikings (-3.5) cover against the Bears. Minnesota’s five-game win streak came to an end on Sunday night versus the Broncos, but the Vikings covered to push their record against the spread to six straight victories. They are now 7-3-1 ATS this season, with the seven covers tied for the NFL high.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has covered in each of his last four games in which he’s been the primary QB, which spans his time with the Vikings and Cardinals. He may very well be the best dual-threat QB on the field come Monday as he has rushing TDs in five straight games, while Justin Fields has just one rushing score on the year after having eight in 2022. For this season, Dobbs also has a higher completion percentage, a better QBR and has been sacked fewer times than Fields despite taking more snaps.
Chicago is just 1-4 on the road this season, with all four defeats coming but at least five points. The model projects the Bears to again lose by more than five away from home, as the Vikings (-3.5) cover in almost 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 12 NFL predictions: The Titans (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Panthers. Being at home is important for the Titans as they are one of two NFL teams with an undefeated ATS home record (3-0). Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled both versus the spread and straight-up no matter where they’re playing. Their 1-9 SU record is the worst in the league, as is their 1-7-2 ATS record.
Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer in each of its last four games and is averaging a miniscule 224.8 total yards over that span. Combine that with the No. 31 scoring defense, and there aren’t many avenues for the Panthers to stay within the spread. Tennessee is at least middle-of-the-pack in scoring defense, ranking 16th, and it also boasts the No. 2 redzone defense. With these factors, the Titans (-3.5) cover well over 50% of the time. The model also says the Over (37) hits in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 12 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 12 NFL schedule and also just revealed three must-see underdogs who win outright. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which underdogs should you pick right now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 12 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Thursday, Nov. 23
Friday, Nov. 24
Dolphins at Jets (+8, 41)
Sunday, Nov. 26
Panthers at Titans (-3.5, 37)
Rams at Cardinals (+1, 44.5)
Browns at Broncos (-1.5, 36.5)
Bills at Eagles (-3.5, 47.5)
Monday, Nov. 27
Bears at Vikings (-3.5, 45)