The NFL point spread has the Steelers as 6-point favorites. The Steelers have been notoriously strong against bad teams under Mike Tomlin. They have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games versus opponents with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Patriots have not covered the spread as an underdog in 12 of their last 13 chances. New England is the worst team against the spread this season at 2-10.
Touchdown picks have been proving extremely difficult this season, but my goal remains the same as in September. Manage to make a profit by the end of the Super Bowl. The analysis has been spot on, but our guys just haven’t been the ones to find paydirt. If you rode the touchdown train last season, you’ll recall we had multiple weeks of over 15 units of profit. I aim for us to climb back into the green in the final five weeks of the regular season.
As the conductor of the touchdown train, I’ve once again narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. Selecting touchdown picks for these two teams right now is a fool’s errand, but there are a couple of spots I like enough to do so. Let’s get to the best NFL bets for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots. Best of luck if you tail!
Steelers vs Patriots Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Allen Robinson (+650)
Backing any Patriots player to score a touchdown is ludicrous since New England’s offense has been anemic this season. Although this isn’t the Steel Curtain defense, Pittsburgh is a formidable unit in 2023. The former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt has 14 sacks entering Week 14, and I expect him to wreak havoc again if his current ankle injury doesn’t slow him down.
The Steelers’ offense hasn’t been much better to trust this season, as they were forced to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada two weeks ago. I’m not excited about either team’s offense, as the Patriots defense has allowed the fewest points in the NFL since Week 9. The Patriots’ run defense has been its best strength all season and ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game and yards per carry.
With Najee Harris dealing with a knee injury, I expect Jaylen Warren to get plenty of work. The only predicament is Pittsburgh won’t be able to lean on its ground game as much as they want. Trubisky will be forced to beat New England through the air.
Over the last two months, the Patriots’ pass defense has been about league average but they are allowing the ninth-highest adjusted completion percentage. I expect Patriots coach Bill Belichick to stack the box and force Trubisky to throw. As long as Trubisky makes good decisions, he will have success, as the Patriots are 28th in EPA per dropback.
With this game expected to be a drag, I’m opting to take a shot with a former teammate of Trubisky’s during their times together in Chicago. Yes, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will likely lead the passing game, but if Pittsburgh can manage to get down in the red zone, I expect Trubisky to look toward a trusted target.
Allen Robinson had three targets last week that all came after Pickett was out of the game. The two veterans played together in Chicago for three seasons. For what it’s worth, I also like the price for a Steelers defense/special teams score, but I’m rolling with just Allen Robinson at this juicy number.
Questions Of The Day
Which TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer is the best value bet?
Which team will rush for more yards in the first half of the TNF Primetime game?